How Good Is Your Football Results
Do you track
If you are serious about winning the football pools then you will be working
with a proven football pools system, and probably staking through a pools syndicate. This way you will be using
football results analysis to provide a performance index for each team, and a set of match forecasts. Then, with a
syndicate you will be maximising the stake you can place. With the best plan that you can afford, which gives you
the desired balance between coverage and guarantee, you will then be in a position to ensure that you have the best
chance of finding the winning line.
With any prediction system though, it is essential to refine
your skill and improve your forecast ability. For example, you may choose to adjust your forecasts to take account
of injuries, team selections and end of season relegation or promotion battles. To improve your forecast
performance, you need to know how well you are doing. It is easy to do!
Sure, you can say ‘we won five times this season’, but that is a fairly rough
measure of your betting performance. For others, their ‘bank’ is their measure. Fair enough, but hardly a sound way
to go. You know the saying “the bookies always win”. Well, that is because they are always on top of their
You should measure your hit rate every week, and compare it. Do you know what your
performance was last week?
By the way, your hit rate doesn’t have to be 100% to win. If you can find 8 draws in a
line on a week when there are 11 draws in the results, and you can win a tidy sum - that’s a hit rate of
Here’s a way to work it out.
Let’s say that your plan last week was a 19,000 line plan. For UK football treble
chance football pools, that would be 19,000 separate entries of 8 draw selections from 49 matches.
The random odds of winning with one line (assuming that there are 8 draws in the
results) would be 1 in 451 million. That’s a big number, but we have 19,000 attempts, which knocks those odds down
to 1 in 24,000. Still a big number, but a big! That’s still with a random forecast.
Now, what result did you achieve?
Let’s say that there were 8 draws in the results, and your system picked 5 of those
draws. Now, it maybe that those five were not in the same line - it happens. But, the forecast system you used
predicted 5 of the 8 - that’s 63%. Work this out weekly, and compare it. is good. If there were 12 draws, then 63%
success might give you 7, perhaps 8 draws.
You pays your money and you takes your choice when it comes to staking, but the money
is wasted unless you are generating forecasts which are better than random. You only need to get it right a few
times a year to cover your stakes and make a profit.
If you are have these elements in place, then you are reducing your odds from 1 in
24,000 (with a 19,000 line plan) down to maybe 1 in 8 or 10, or even lower. With a 51,000 line plan, you are
looking at better than a 1 in 4 chance.
Therefore, it pays to:
* use a proper forecasting system that works, and
* measure its hit rate every week
* then stake through a syndicate so that you can afford better perms or
There is a lot more to being profitable with the football pools. You need to know when
not to do them too, when teams will not be playing to form.
Phil Marks, March